SC - 2016 Sales Predictions

It’s become a bit of a tradition these past few years for me to start off a new year of sales stats with local Realtor® predictions. So, I went on the hunt and managed to find 3 who gazed into their crystals balls and shared their visions with one and all. Today, I’ve read over those predictions and where appropriate or useful I have clarified or commented.

Let’s start with SC Realtor® Mike Carson, Royal LePage Sussex, who on Jan 5, 2016 had this to say...

Happy New Year!

It’s a brand new year, and I think it is going to be a good one for real estate.  Interest rates remain stable, the economy is on track, the Sunshine Coast is finally on the map, and it appears confidence has been restored in the markets [Skook: oh, if only Mike had known what was to come in July - foreign buyer tax and October - Federal Government intervention].  Across the board we have just had the best November in almost 10 years, and personally December was a very busy month, with no let-up in sight.   Inventory is way down, as many properties sold in November and December but few new properties have been listed; this is a good scenario for sellers.  Prices have not yet risen, nor have interest rates, so it is also a good time for buyers.

Thinking of buying or selling?  Give me a call and let’s talk real estate.

On Jan 6, 2016, Ria Qureshi wrote for fellow team members husband Russ Qureshi and Terri Murphy, Royal LePage Sussex...

Bringing 2015 to a close, we saw an incredible amount of transactions in the detached market and that started to spill over into the attached market. Land-only properties began moving in an upward direction. Looking at 2016, Coast Lifestyles Network is optimistic and eager to shatter the 2015 stats! Let us help you be part of the coming years’ success!!

Realtor Kenan MacKenzie, Royal LePage Sussex, did not post separate 2016 predictions this year but tacked on a few thoughts to the bottom of his December 2015 sales summary uploaded to his blog on Jan 14, 2016...

Well 2014 was not a bad year but 2015 was a stellar year for sales. Sales increased and so did the Sunshine Coast home prices, according to the MLS® Home Price Index, the home prices rose by 11.8 percent to $392,200 [Skook: this is the MLS® Benchmark Sales Price]. Construction is booming, subdivisions are filling in [Skook: How about Trail Bay Estates, Kenan? Is that filling in?] and people are discovering how beautiful the Sunshine Coast is [Skook: Yep, all those condos, apartments and cottages removed from the rental pool and put up on AirBnB are working wonders]. We are now into the 2nd year of an up market and detached homes have moved into a more balanced market and attached and land listings are trending to a more balanced market [Skook: I think Kenan must be using the Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio. See the bottom my SC-Dec 2015 Sales post]. Typically our markets run for 6 to 7 years both up and down so here is looking to a strong 2016.

Well, for the most part all three had a right to be optimistic. None of them could have predicted the fall out from a series of early February Globe & Mail investigative reports on the Vancouver real estate market by Kathy Tomlinson that would lead to the BC government appointing an Independent Advisory Group (IAG) headed by BC Superintendent of Real Estate, Carolyn Rogers. The IAG would eventually release a damning report that would usher in profound changes to the BC real estate industry in general and the lower mainland market in particular.

Then on October 3, 2016, in response to mind-blowing personal debt levels of Canadians - most of it mortgage debt, the Federal Government announced 4 significant changes to the rules governing the nation’s housing market. We all wait with bated breath for this month’s sales stats to see how the dust settles; although, early word is it’s not going to be a pretty.